Over the last 15 years, only 8.3% of all NFL Picks games with a –10.5 favorite resulted in the favorite winning by 10 points. When Tampa Bay (–10.5 or –11) “lost” 20-10 to Seattle last week it was the first time in three years (26 games) that a –10.5 favorite would have pushed or covered for someone who bought into the points versus someone who lost with the normal -10.5 line.

The second most popular line where people have felt compelled to "buy" points for safety reasons is 3. During that same week that saw Seattle just come in under the "non-buying" number four NFL picks games had a line of 3. In researching action during that week sports bettors flooded the books with extra cash. All thinking to gain advantage. Unfortunately for the betting public the favorites in those four games came in at +20, +4, –6, and -17 points from the spread. If you bet $100 on all four favorites you would have come out with -$20 loss. If you went for the "insurance" you would have ended up with a -$40 loss as you would have had to pay for the benefit of the buy. If you would have went for the underdogs where the line was turned into +3.5 or +4, those same four games would have netted you the same result.

The bottom line in all of this is when the most popular NFL Picks lines (10.5 , 3) to buy points come up realize that the "insurance" does not come into play often enough to make buying it worth it. The percentages overwhelmingly show that a bettor buying the points is more often laying extra money to either lose by more than a half or 1 point.

At press time both the Arizona and Atlanta games have a 3 point betting line. You might want to look at Arizona between the two game but don's spend your hard earned money on trying to get the line to Arizons -2.5 or -2. Chances are it won't matter.

Michael is coming off another winning Sunday of NFL Picks last weekend. This Sunday Michael has his strongest game of the year on tap in the Dallas/NY Giants contest! Join Michael for all of his GUARANTEED WINNER!.