All of us go thru our lives trying to find people and things we can depend on. If we go out to eat, we look to go to places where the food is good or trust the judgment of our friends, for a tasty meal. When we need services for cars, air-conditioning or heat and possibly appliances that breakdown, we want to be able to trust someone to fix the problem at a fair price.
The same logic applies to sports betting. How often has anyone of us bet on a team maybe we don’t wager on a great deal, play them, lose the bet and forget about playing that team for an extended period because we’ve been burned by them? It happens to all of us making knee-jerk reactions, rightly or wrongly. We instead retreat back to situations or in this instance, teams we can trust.
With the college basketball season past the halfway point, we have enough games in the hopper to make observations about certain teams making them worthy of consideration for our wagering dollars or possibly not. We are aware what is true in sports wagering today, isn’t necessarily so in a week. Nevertheless, a collection of teams have been found to be trustworthy looking at two simple situations this season.
One such instance is teams off a spread loss. We all know you can’t win every bet and you have to play the percentages. One bad week does not a season make, but realistically, how many of us make a bet before the game thinking we are going to lose. When our wager goes south in the first 10 minutes, we have all said “I knew this was going to lose”, yet the fact remains we believed enough in the team to actually place the bet, thus we are being revisionists if nothing else.
Teams off a spread loss record (SU & ATS)
BYU 6-1, 5-1 ATS
Detroit 3-2, 5-0
Duke 6-0, 5-1
Georgetown 6-0, 4-1-1
Kansas 6-1, 4-1-1
Temple 6-1, 5-2
Valparaiso 4-2, 4-0-1
Xavier 6-1, 6-1
For the most part, the teams on this list have pedigree in terms of winning and expectations. Duke, Georgetown and Kansas are going to be somewhat overvalued by oddsmakers and when they come off a less than desirable result as a team and the perception of the head coach, they go right back to work and solve the issues. That is not to say these teams are going to make this group each year, rather, the group of individuals on this particular team is more adaptive, willing to listen to their coach, have team leaders and the talent to immediately improve and will likely get a somewhat fairer price labeled on them especially off a loss.
BYU and Xavier would also fit similar reasoning, just not being as public teams for the normal sports bettor.
Temple lost three very good players from last year’s team, however coach Fran Dunphy has elevated the Owls program thru recruiting to the point where they can reload as opposed to rebuild. Valparaiso is well coached by Homer Drew with limited talent, while Detroit is regaining status under second year coach Ray McCallum having the players buying into his system after being down for years.
The next grouping we seek is teams off a spread victory. Here the idea is to find teams that cover the number and continue to beat those setting the lines. For this contingent, we want to entrust teams that can build on momentum and have proven that they can cover the spread and one setback isn’t going to hold them back since they can climb right back in the saddle and win again and continue on.
Teams off a spread win record (SU & ATS)
Baylor 6-2, 5-1 ATS
Clemson 9-0, 6-1
College of Charleston 8-1, 6-1-1
Gonzaga 9-0, 6-2
Kansas State 9-1, 5-1
Morehead State 7-2, 5-1
Northeastern 10-1, 8-2-1
Siena 6-1, 5-0
South Florida 7-3, 7-2
Southern Miss 7-2, 5-1
St. Mary’s 11-2, 9-3
Syracuse 11-1, 8-3
Texas 8-0, 5-1
Villanova 13-0, 10-3
What’s not to like about these winners! Some of the very finest teams in the country are within this group and having seen many of them play; the ability is certainly there to continue winning ways, as long as the oddmakers don’t start adding too many points on their ledger. Whenever time is allotted to dig a little deeper, surprise teams always emerge. A Northeastern, picked to finish fifth in the Colonial Athletic Conference steps forward. Most basketball bettors are aware of Murray State from the Ohio Valley, but Morehead State led by possible OVC Player of the Rear Kenneth Faried, could be going back to NCAA Tournament after last season’s astonishing appearance.
Drake 5-4, 6-1-1 ATS
Sacramento State 3-10, 8-3
Wyoming 2-6, 6-0
Drake is expediently acquiring notoriety and trust with 5-1 and 6-0 ATS mark in last six outings, all as underdogs. Sacramento State is being outscored by six points per game after a spread cover, which is great news since they have mostly received 10 or more points in putting together 7-14 campaign. The Hornets might be 3-14 as underdogs, but the cha-ching heard is 13-4 ATS record. Wyoming to is outscored after covering the number (3.3 PPG), nonetheless they must be being overlooked by Mountain West teams and others with 7-2 ATS mark as humble and profitable dogs.
It pays to go with things you can trust, even in college basketball betting.
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