With most teams at the mid-point of the college football campaign, conference races are taking shape and meaningful data is being accumulated. Those wagering on college football should be gearing up for a successful second half of the season, no matter what the earlier results were.

In order to be successful you have to be extremely savvy. Too many bettors in any sport focus on too few aspects that can help them win. Some focus on statistical data, which is great way to understand how teams play. Here you can view how teams run the ball and pass the pigskin. At the same time you can see how they do defensively in the same areas. As the season continues, searching for similar opponents can be a big advantage, pitting one team against another in head to head comparison. This can show the strengths and weaknesses of teams against a given foe.

The negative to this type of comparison is placing absolute value on the predictive nature of the next game. How does a team like Michigan State that had averaged 234 yards rushing in its four previous games, run for just 91 yards at home against Iowa on Oct.4, in a game the Spartans should have lost (Iowa in the end zone –awful) and barely managed to cover at six-point favorites 16-13? This is where the sports bettor has to be armed with more then on the surface knowledge and be ready to take the next step.

Situational handicapping is needed to be blended with technical material. Michigan State was off four satisfying wins and could have covered the spread in all four games, except for inclement weather at home against Florida Atlantic. Iowa was off a pair of losses, mostly due to inferior quarterback play that prevented them from scoring more points. The Hawkeyes had the motivational edge in desire, wanting to break losing skid and Michigan State might be a little satisfied after playing quite well.

In studying statistics, Iowa had held its earlier opponents to about three yards per carry. A look at the numbers saw the Spartans had only rushed for 91 yards at California in their only loss. A quick check of the stats shows the Bears are allowing 2.5 yards per carry.

The final piece to this puzzle is the play of guarterback Brian Hoyer. The numbers suggest Hoyer is having a decent season; however Michigan State is built around the running game. Hoyer has the ability to throw the ball, but is not a great playmaker. He’s more suited to lead a team into scoring position and then the running game takes over. Despite a 4-1 record (at the time), Hoyer had three touchdown passes and three interceptions coming into first Spartans Big 10 home game.

Let’s review why Iowa was great underdog play. They needed to win after a pair of losses and Michigan State was at home hearing about how well they are playing. The Hawkeyes run defense is quite good and the Spartans had shown they could be stopped rushing the ball. In spite of a quarterback edge for Michigan State, their signal caller had not made “difference” plays most of the season.

This type of analysis might seem overwhelming or very time consuming. The fact is once the proper routine is setup, a schedule of 40-50 games can be knocked off in an evening. Studying your stats lays down a solid foundation of understanding teams, yet I have never seen a number that tells me when a team might be more or less motivated for a specific game. Winning isn’t supposed to be easy, that’s why most bettors lose.

In today’s world, where everything is seemingly going wrong, people are looking to those who have substantive answers (not those seeking to be elected officials) that can get the world back on track. Betting football changes every year, as home underdogs are super one year and not the next. This is where it pays to look beyond the curtain and see what else is available.

One of my colleagues at the Platinum Sheet is a big supporter in Yards Per Play. Most of our discussions have centered on the NFL, however this statistic can work in the college game as well.

<strong>Yards Per Play</strong> can work for a number of reasons, starting with a team like Missouri for example. The Tigers are led by Heisman contender <strong>Chase Daniel</strong>. With his skill and weaponry in the Missouri offense, they average 7.9 YPP. In is simplest form, the Tigers have shown the ability to create a first down every other play. Of course a number of teams would have that same ability by using that scale. But why it works for Missouri and other teams of its ilk, they have good first down gain, typically have short third down conversions to be made and make big plays that lead to points.

<strong>Here are the Top 10 teams in Yards Per Play (Regular and Spread Records)

Tulsa 6-0 4-1
Missouri 5-1 3-2
Texas Tech 6-0 2-1-1
UL-Louisiana 3-3 5-1
Oklahoma State 6-0 5-0
Arkansas State 4-2 2-3
Penn State 7-0 4-1-1
Ball State 7-0 5-0-1
Houston 3-3 2-3
Oklahoma 5-1 4-1

Total 52-10, 36-13-3 ATS</strong>
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<div>Rest assured these numbers will change since the Big 12 has four teams in the Top 10 in this category and many will face off against one another before the end of the regular season.

A question that comes to mind is will all these teams continue to be good wagers? Obviously defense, special teams and the schedule will all impact how these teams perform, however looking purely offensively, relative balance would seem to be imperative. <strong>Texas Tech</strong> is fine example. The Red Raiders passing game has been unsurpassed since Mike Leach has been the coach. For Texas Tech, 74.2 percent of their offense is generated thru the air. Now having to face stiffer competition in the Big 12, stronger defenses will try to take away the Red Raiders running game and limit the pass, making them even more one-dimensional and beatable.

<strong>Penn State</strong> seems well-suited for success, gaining able yardage per play and rushing accounting for 48.5 percent of their total yards gained and passing the rest.
 

 

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